Thanks for the respond.
Thanks for the respond. When we speak of chance we don't speak of time span that the chance will happen, but I think you can formulate a model to try to make a prediction. I think they did a calculation and mentioned that it is not possible for the random mutation to happen within the 13.8 billion years of earth's life. Even then, how do you combine chance with time. Probabilistic models can only say the chance it will happen but not the time span it will happen. And even if it did it is a theoretical prediction not actual.